The San Francisco Bay Area continues to recover slowly from the loss of population during the pandemic. Estimates released this month by the U.S. Census Bureau confirm that all five Bay Area counties recorded positive population growth in the year ending July 2024.
Population growth is a fundamental driver of demand for the region’s commercial and residential real estate markets. Large differences among the counties reflect acute variations in what happened to the region’s population in 2020 and the changes that have been taking place in the most recent years.
Santa Clara County led the way in 2024 with a population increase of 29,000 and an annual growth rate of 1.5%, the county's highest in the past decade. Three straight years of population growth mean the Silicon Valley area has almost recovered from the population loss of 2020. A continuation of the current growth rate will see Santa Clara achieve its highest-ever population in 2025.
San Mateo County saw the second-highest growth rate in 2024, at 1.2%, with the population growing by 8,600. The northern part of Silicon Valley has not recovered as quickly as Santa Clara County. Despite the most recent year’s growth, the population remains some 20,000 smaller than in 2020.
San Francisco County also has a long way to go to recover the pandemic losses, when the population fell by 59,000, or 6.8%. The most recent year’s growth of 1%, or 8,400, suggests a full recovery is many years away.
In the East Bay, Contra Costa County saw a modest population decline during the pandemic due to its more diverse economy and new home development in areas such as Brentwood and Oakley. In contrast, Alameda County lost around 50,000 people between 2020 and 2022, and it has only partially recovered, with an increase of 10,900, or 0.7%, in 2024.
In accordance with the longer-term trend, net immigration from overseas was the main contributor to population growth in the Bay Area in 2024. The total increase from international immigration across the five counties was 112,000, of which Santa Clara County took the largest share, 44,600.
Workers from overseas are an important component of the Bay Area’s skilled workforce. A recent Joint Venture Silicon Valley study found that 66% of tech workers in Silicon Valley were born overseas.
The continued flow of immigrants remains important to offset the outflow of domestic migrants. In 2024, all five Bay Area counties saw outward net migration to other parts of the United States.
With a slowing birth rate and aging population, the Bay Area will rely even more heavily on international migration to provide highly skilled tech workers in the years ahead. The national debate around migration is one that Bay Area tech companies and commercial real estate participants will watch closely.
