The commercial real estate sector is showing clear signs of recovery as we move deeper into 2026. Major players like Colliers, Marcus & Millichap, and CBRE have reported stronger-than-expected results for late 2025 and are raising their outlooks, pointing to rebounding transaction volumes, stabilizing fundamentals, and renewed investor confidence.
This momentum comes after years of challenges from high interest rates, economic uncertainty, and post-pandemic shifts. Falling property prices are drawing buyers back in, while sectors like data centers (fueled by AI demand) and select office/leasing markets are gaining traction. Executives from these firms are also optimistic about AI—not as a threat, but as a tool for boosting efficiency in property analysis, underwriting, client outreach, and overall operations.
Colliers: Strong Growth and Strategic Expansion
Toronto-headquartered Colliers (one of the world's largest commercial property services firms) delivered solid performance in Q4 and full-year 2025:
- Q4 revenue: $1.61 billion, up 7% year-over-year (5% in local currency).
- Full-year revenue: $5.56 billion, a 15% increase.
- Growth spanned all segments, with the engineering and design division surging 40% to $1.73 billion, driven by key acquisitions like Ramos Consulting Services (California) and Ayesa Engineering (Spain, ~$700 million).
CEO Jay Hennick highlighted entering 2026 with "strong momentum" and a healthy pipeline, expecting continued internal growth plus contributions from recent deals. While adjusted EPS of $2.34 came in slightly below analyst expectations (leading to a temporary stock dip), the firm views AI as a long-term "productivity and growth enabler" that automates routine tasks and lets professionals focus on high-value advisory work.
Colliers' outlook aligns with broader industry forecasts, including its own 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Report emphasizing capital markets rebound (15-20% transaction volume growth expected) and stabilizing conditions.
Marcus & Millichap: Return to Profitability and Financing Strength
Calabasas-based Marcus & Millichap, a leader in brokerage and financing for private clients and middle-market deals, marked a turnaround:
- Returned to quarterly profitability with $13.3 million in Q4 net income (second straight profitable quarter after prior losses).
- Full-year 2025 revenue: Approximately $755 million, up 8.5%.
- Financing revenue jumped notably (full-year up 23% to $104 million), reflecting higher transaction volumes.
CEO Hessam Nadji pointed to improving investor sentiment, lower property prices attracting more buyers, and AI's role in enhancing efficiency across analysis, underwriting, and client targeting. The firm remains cautiously optimistic for 2026, mindful of economic and geopolitical factors but encouraged by stabilizing cap rates, price adjustments, and returning capital.
CBRE and Broader Industry Context
These results echo CBRE's record-breaking revenue and earnings, boosted by leasing, sales, and surging data center demand tied to AI growth. Industry reports (including CBRE's U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2026) project a 16% rise in investment activity to around $562 billion, near pre-pandemic averages supported by easing financial conditions and AI-driven opportunities.
Recent market volatility (e.g., stock dips amid AI disruption fears) has been tempered by executives emphasizing that complex, relationship-driven deal making remains hard for AI to replace. Instead, tools like AI platforms are expected to cut costs, improve accuracy, and drive margins in research-heavy areas.
What This Means for 2026: Key Drivers of CRE Recovery
- Transaction rebound: Leasing and sales volumes approaching or exceeding 2019 levels in many segments.
- AI's dual role: Efficiency gains in brokerage and operations, plus massive demand for data centers and tech-related properties.
- Sector highlights: Retail strength (especially grocery-anchored), industrial resilience, select office improvements (e.g., relocations in markets like Lower Manhattan), and engineering/project management growth.
- Cautions: Lingering uncertainties from inflation, geopolitics, and potential rate path limitations.
As firms like JLL, Cushman & Wakefield, and Newmark continue reporting, the consensus points to a strengthening year ahead. For investors, occupiers, and professionals, 2026 could mark a true turning point toward sustained growth in commercial real estate.
If you're navigating CRE deals, investments, or advisory services this year, staying ahead of these trends—especially AI integration and recovering transaction pipelines—will be key. What are your thoughts on the 2026 outlook? Share in the comments!
